Peak Oil
The fact is that oil production is already falling in 60 countries. You can read more about this and Hubbert's Peak here
And according to many experts and agencies including the UK Energy Research Council, at some point probably in the next decade, global oil production will start to fall – for ever.
We are now entering a period called Peak Oil.
2009 DECC report on Peak Oil.pptx
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"EIGHTY-FIVE million barrels. That's how much oil we consume every day. It's a staggering amount - enough to fill over 5400 Olympic swimming pools - and demand is expected to keep on rising, despite the impending supply crunch. The International Energy Agency forecasts that by 2030 it will rise to about 105 million barrels per day with a commensurate increase in production, although whistle-blowers recently told The Guardian newspaper in London that insiders at the IEA believe the agency vastly over-estimates our chances of plugging that gap. The agency officially denies this. Wherever the truth lies, it is widely expected that by 2030 we will have passed the peak of conventional oil production - the moment that output from conventional oil reserves goes into terminal decline. A report from the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) published in August said there was a "significant risk" it would happen before 2020. And that means we will soon be staring down the barrel of the ultimate oil crisis. Some governments and corporations are waking up to the idea and beginning to develop alternatives to keep the world's transport systems moving when cheap oil runs out. These include biofuels, more energy-efficient - or electric - cars and hydrogen. But none of these is likely to make up the global shortfall in time..."
From "Extreme Oil: Scraping the bottom of Earth's barrel" New Scientist 02 December 2009, by David Strahan.
David Strahan is a journalist and author of "The Last Oil Shock"
Read his blog here...
Add a Comment
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Comment by Ben on July 13, 2010 at 12:29pm -
Here is the full Sustainable Energy Security report:
16720_0610_froggatt_lahn.pdf
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Comment by Ben on July 13, 2010 at 12:26pm
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From foreword of the Sustainable Energy Security White Paper from Lloyds and Chatham House (published July 2010):
"This report, jointlyproduced by Lloyd’s 360 Risk Insight programme and Chatham House,
should cause all risk managers to pause. What it outlines, in stark detail, is that we have
entered a period of deep uncertainty in how we will source energy for power, heat and mobility,
and how much we will have to pay for it.
Is this any different from the normal volatility of the oil or gas markets? Yes, it is. Today, a number of pressures are combining: constraints on ‘easy to access’ oil; the environmental and political urgency of reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and a sharp rise in energy demand
from the Asian economies, particularly China.
All of this means that the current generation of business leaders – and their successors – are going to have to find a new energy paradigm. As the report makes clear, we can expect dramatic changes: prices are likely to rise, with some commentators suggesting oil may reach
$200 a barrel; regulations on carbon emissions will intensify; and reputations will be won or lost as the public demands that businesses reduce their environmental footprint."
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Comment by Viv Jones on December 6, 2009 at 5:41pm -
thanks for this and the phots ben - just about to check out the huddle..V
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